Still Much Uncertainty as Vote Tallies Continue

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November 9, 2020

Vote counting continues in nearly every state, as is the custom. However, for most states, the rest of the counting is just a formality. Left uncertain still is the number of electoral votes that projected winner Joe Biden will get when the Electoral College meets on December 14.

As of Nov. 10, projections are that the Democrat and former Vice-president will get more than the needed 270. Still unknown:

  • Alaska. Polls closed late there, and counting continues; however, President Donald Trump is expected to prevail there because he is so far ahead in the tally already.
  • Georgia. Trump led in the voting for most of Election Day and the days that followed; but as the number of counted mail-in ballots increased, the lead for the Republican dwindled and was finally erased. If current trends hold, then Biden will win that state. A recount is expected.
  • Arizona. Mitt Romney won the state in 2012. So did Trump in 2016. But Biden has amassed a larger tally so far, amid continued counting. Projections are that the Democrat will win that state.
  • North Carolina. Counting continues in that state, with Trump clinging to a small lead. A recount is possible.

The Trump campaign has called for a recount in Wisconsin, which Biden is currently leading by more than 20,000 votes. Georgia, in which the Biden lead is slim, and Pennsylvania, in which Biden is leading by a much larger margin, will likely proceed with a recount. Trump has also pursued lawsuits alleging voting irregularities in other states.

Control of the U.S. Senate is still unknown for next year's session. (The current spread is 53–47, for the Republicans.) All states are still counting ballots, and some races are still undecided. Projections are that both Democrats and Republicans have kept or won 48 seats each. Remaining are four:

  • Incumbent Dan Sullivan, a Republican, is expected to keep his seat representing Alaska. Voting is not complete, but Sullivan is ahead of the Democratic challenger, Al Gross, by a 2-to-1 margin and Alaska has traditionally had Republican Senators.
  • North Carolina incumbent Thom Tillis, a Republican, is ahead of his Democratic challenger, Cal Cunningham, by fewer than 100,000 votes, with 97 percent of the vote counted. North Carolina law allows mailed-in ballots to be counted until November 12, provided those ballots were postmarked on Election Day, which was Nov. 3.
  • Georgia incumbent David Perdue, a Republican, looks to be headed for a runoff against his main challenger, Democrat Jon Ossoff. The state is still counting ballots that came in the mail or came from overseas. Even though the state has finished 98 percent of the counting, the secretary of state has stated the need for a recount. If no candidate receives a majority of the votes, then the top two finishers will advance to a runoff, to be run Jan. 5, 2021.
  • Republican Kelly Loeffler (serving in place of Johnny Isakson, who resigned for health reasons in 2019) is trailing her Democrat challenger, Raphael Warnock, in the unfinished tally for Georgia's special election. Far behind but garnering a significant tally was another Republican, Doug Collins. Since no candidate received a majority of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff, to be run Jan. 5, 2021.

In the House, projections are that the Democratic Party will retain its majority but by a smaller margin. (The pre-election spread was 235–199). Current vote tallies give the Democrats 216 seats, two short of the needed 218 to claim a majority in the 435-seat House of Representatives. Enough of the uncalled elections are expected to go Democratic for officials of both parties to expect a continued Democratic majority.

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