New Hampshire: Sanders, Trump Win Emphatically

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The 2016 Presidential Election

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February 9, 2016

It was a resounding victory for Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump in the New Hampshire primaries. Sanders, the Democratic Senator from Vermont, convincingly got more votes than former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. On the Republican side, Trump was a clear first, but the picture after that was a bit muddled.

Both results, many observers said, pointed to voter dissatisfaction with establishment candidates. Clinton is a longtime politician who was First Lady, then a Senator, and then Secretary of State. Sanders has served in the Senate for several years but is campaigning on a platform of change. On the Republican side, Trump has never held elective office and those who have, his opponents, have come in for withering criticism from the billionaire and have been unable to gain enough support at the polls to offset Trump’s fame.

The polls opened just after midnight in a few areas of the Granite State. Dixville Notch continued its tradition of opening first and reporting first, and the winners there were Sanders and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. As elsewhere in the sparsely populated state, the vote totals were small.

Throughout the state, though, turnout was strong despite a snowstorm that arrived on election day. Also strong was Sanders’ performance, following on a razor-thin loss to Clinton in the Iowa caucuses. As in Iowa, Sanders enjoyed overwhelming support from younger and new voters.

Trump, who guaranteed a win in Iowa but then finished second, got twice as many as votes as Kasich and declared himself the front-runner again, and the delegate total would back up that claim, for the moment. And Kasich found support in more parts of the state than in Dixville Notch. He outdistanced Iowa Caucuses winner Ted Cruz for a clear second place. Cruz just squeaked ahead of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush for a third-place finish. Iowa’s third-place finisher, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, finished a distance fifth in N.H. Further back in the vote tallies were Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, and Ben Carson.

New Hampshire allows independent voters to vote for either Democratic or Republican candidates, and the independent vote had a significant effect on statewide totals. Clinton and Sanders had about the same number of votes from registered Democrats; but adding independent voters' totals game Sanders a runaway victory. More independents voted for Kasich than for any other Republican candidate; removing independent voters from the mix would have meant that no candidate would have emerged as a clear second-place finisher behind Trump.

As in Iowa, it’s all about the delegates. Final delegate totals for New Hampshire are these:

Democratic Party
Sanders 13
Clinton 9

Republican Party
Trump 10
Kasich 3
Cruz 2
Bush 2
Rubio 2
Christie, Caron, Fiorina all 0

Trump got 7 delegates in Iowa and so is leading overall with 17. Cruz won Iowa but got only one delegate more than Trump so is in second overall with 10. Rubio got 7 in Iowa and none in New Hampshire so is a distant third.

The Iowa Democratic vote was close enough, with Clinton getting 23 delegates and Sanders 21, that Sanders's win in New Hampshire puts him unofficially ahead, with 34; Clinton is just behind, with 32.

The focus of the campaign now shifts to Nevada and South Carolina, with the two major parties splitting their primary or caucus during Feb. 20–27. Then, it’s all eyes on Super Tuesday, March 1, when 14 states will have primaries.

As for how winning in Iowa or New Hampshire will affect Clinton, Cruz, Sanders, and Trump, recent history shows a mixed bag of results.

A couple list of dates for caucuses and primaries is here.

It all leads up to the major party national conventions. The Republican Party convention will be July 18–21 in Cleveland. The Democratic Party convention will be the week of July 25th in Philadelphia.

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David White